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Estimated releasable capital over 12 months

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Distribution of releasable capital
Probability of staying under a target (red lines: your targets)
What drives the releasable capital

💡 Help: understanding the model variables
Sales variability (%): This is the standard deviation of your sales. If your sales are very stable, use 5%. If they fluctuate a lot (strong seasonality, irregular orders), use 30% or more.
Average supplier lead time (days): The time between placing an order and the goods being ready in your warehouse.
Lead time variability (%): The reliability of your suppliers. If they always deliver in exactly 30 days, use 5%. If it can be 20 days or 45 days, use 40%.
Annual holding cost (%): The cost of keeping inventory (storage, insurance, capital tie-up, depreciation). Generally estimated between 20% and 30% per year.
Stockout cost per unit ($): How much it costs you to miss one unit (lost margin, penalties, emergency orders, reputation impact).
Target service level (%): The probability of not being out of stock. 95% means you accept being out of stock 5% of the time. The higher this number, the larger your safety stock must be.

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